Go back just a short time to late 2017 and Canadian real estate prices were the fastest rising anywhere in the world. Now, interestingly, as the market pulls a 180 and explores where prices should be. Reputable source numbers showed a decline in home prices for the third quarter of the previous year. For the first time in over five years, Canadian real estate prices have declined for a quarter. However, despite this quarterly decline prices still stay at significantly higher numbers than we saw in 2016.
All of this should be a little startling for real estate professionals, and perhaps alarming for their clients. The best realtors know the market and its dynamics as thoroughly as possible, and here at Real Estate Leads our online real estate lead generation system gives new realtors the ability to hit the ground running when it comes to building their business. This, of course, gives you more of the opportunities to make clear just how extensively you know the housing market in Canada.
Looking at the US Federal Reserve Home Prices Index
This information shared here today is referenced via the Dallas Fed and in particular their Real House Price Index (RHPI). It’s the same concept followed by the HPI that Teranet and the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). It helps them get a cleaner, and more comprehensive look at the general market.
The inflation adjusted score tracks the aggregate of urban markets across the country, and is updated quarterly. Realtors shouldn’t expect to use these numbers to determine how much their clients will be paying in comparison to a neighbour’s house. You and fellow realty professionals should instead be using these stats for a clearer view of national home buying trends, and the Canadian economy in general. Needless to say, housing is a very large industry in Canada, and a slowdown would damage the economy quite significantly.
Q3 Canadian Real Estate Prices Dropped 3.82%
According to the Dallas Fed, what we’re seeing is Canadian real estate prices dropping at the most rapid rate seen since the early 1990s. Real home prices – or more specifically home prices adjusted for inflation – fell 3.82% in the third quarter of 2017. This single quarter decline is the first one of its kind since 2012, and the largest since the first quarter of 1991. Further, it’s the largest single quarter decline in the world apparently, with the second largest decline being observed in Italy, and prices fell 0.38% in the same quarter there.
Canadian Real Estate Prices Remain Up Over 7%
Despite this considerable quarterly decline, Canadian real estate prices are still much higher. The index is 7.44% higher than the same quarter for the year previous, and almost twice as much as the aggregate index for other countries. The increase is quickly tapering from peak growth observed in the first quarter of 2017. While this quarterly decline is significant, the real estate market in Canada is outperforming many other markets, and that of course is a definite bonus when looking at the big picture.
It’s important to keep in mind that a single data point isn’t indicative of a trend, but a decline of this size is worth taking note of. Up until this point it has been 5 years of trending upward with the housing market, and while it might just be a breather – like in 2012 – it could also be the beginning of a broad market correction like the one seen in 1990.
Most noteworthy in all of this as far realtors and the homebuying capacities of their clients is concerned is the fact that this occurred starting six months before OSFI mortgage rules were rolled out to cool conventional mortgage borrowing. The rule changes add significant uncertainty to the market, and especially so after prices are beginning to be a little softer than previously.
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